With Selection Sunday fast approaching, Penn State basketball’s postseason outlook is starting to clear up as conference tournaments around the country are play out. In the week following the Big Ten Tournament, ESPN bracketology expert Joe Lunardi has bounced Penn State between the “First Four Out” and the “Next Four Out” on his NCAA Tournament bubble watch list, meaning he expects the Nittany Lions to narrowly miss the tournament.

Heading into Thursday night’s games, Penn State was listed second in the “Next Four Out” list, which puts the Nittany Lions about six spots short of making it to the Big Dance for the first time since 2011. Currently, only four Big Ten teams– Michigan State, Purdue, Ohio State, and Big Ten Tournament champion Michigan– are listed in the field of 68. Meanwhile, fellow Power 5 conferences such as the ACC (nine), SEC (eight), and the Big 12 (eight) are crammed into the field based on Lunardi’s projections released on Thursday afternoon.

Although according to ESPN, Penn State’s chances of making the tournament are as good as gone, we researched the teams listed in the “Last Four In” all the way down to Penn State. Here’s what we found on those nine teams when comparing their respective resumés against the Nittany Lions.

Has A Real Shot:

Oklahoma

Record: 18-13, 8-10 in the Big 12

The media has chosen Oklahoma point guard Trae Young as its darling this season and been lenient with the Sooners, who have lost 11 of their last 15 games heading into this weekend.

Six ranked victories, although most of them came early in the season, probably are enough for Oklahoma to sneak in the very last spot in the field. However, the Sooners are trending the wrong way and may be less deserving than several of the teams ranked below them on this list.

UCLA

Record: 20-10, 11-7 in the Pac-12

The Bruins were swept by 17-15 Colorado and lost once to 16-15 Oregon State in conference play, but wins over Kentucky and Arizona make the Bruins arguably the best team on this list.

With only two guaranteed locks coming from the Pac-12 and the benefit of being the most prestigious program in NCAA history, UCLA definitely belongs in the field this Sunday ahead of the rest of the teams on this list.

Alabama

Record: 18-14, 8-10 in the SEC

Here’s where it gets interesting. The Crimson Tide have the least amount of wins and the most losses of any of the nine teams ranked ahead of Penn State. A ninth-place finish in its conference and losses to 12-20 Vanderbilt and 12-20 Ole Miss already raise some red flags. Pair that with a five-game losing streak heading into the SEC Tournament and you have a team that is almost a guaranteed first round exit in the Big Dance.

Not to mention, the SEC would have eight bids if Alabama made the tournament, double that of the Big Ten and five more spots than the Pac-12. The SEC has been deeper this season than the Big Ten, and Alabama does have a head-to-head win over fellow bubble competitor Oklahoma, but I think the Nittany Lions can make an legitimate argument over the Tide for a spot in the NCAA Tournament.

Louisville

Record: 20-13, 9-9 in the ACC

Although the Cardinals haven’t really suffered a bad loss all season long, they are also 1-8 against top-25 teams this year and are stuck in a 4-8 funk during their last 12 games heading into the tournament.

With 20 wins, the Cardinals seem to have a better argument than Alabama and Oklahoma on paper, but they could use some help over the next two days to ensure that Louisville finds its way into the NCAA Tournament.

Oklahoma State

Record: 19-13, 8-10 in the Big 12

In my mind, the Cowboys are more deserving than Oklahoma, Alabama, and Louisville. Oklahoma State doesn’t own a bad loss to weigh it down and has four wins over teams that were ranked in the top 10 at the time of each meeting. The Pokes were even able to sweep Kansas this season, and they went 2-1 against Oklahoma when they met this season.

The fact that they knocked the Sooners out of the Big 12 Tournament makes it confusing as to how the Cowboys are being placed below Oklahoma on the bubble watch. Winning four out of its last five games and entering Thursday night with a 6-5 record against ranked teams should have been enough for Oklahoma State to be placed above all three of the aforementioned teams, and safely inside of the bubble.

Notre Dame

Record: 20-13, 8-10 in the ACC

At one point this season, the Fighting Irish had lost seven straight games. At 20-13, Notre Dame has climbed back into the conversation with a solid run at the end of the regular season. The Irish got back preseason ACC Player of the Year, Bonzi Colson, just in time to overcome a 21-point second half deficit to shock Virginia Tech on Wednesday and keep its hopes alive.

With a star like Colson back and the team peaking at the right time, its easy to see why this team is in the bubble conversation. However, this team shares a bad home loss comparable to Penn State, losing to Ball State in December. Not to mention, the Irish typically only go seven-deep with their rotation, as the 6-foot-5 Colson is sometimes forced to play center. That doesn’t bode well for an NCAA Tournament team, and that seven-game skid likely did too much damage for Notre Dame to overcome barring a miraculous run in the ACC Tournament.

Too Little, Too Late

Arizona State

Record: 20-11, 8-10 in the Pac-12

The Sun Devils started the season 12-0, with ranked wins over Xavier and Kansas to bolster their impressive early season resumé. It all went down hill from there as an 8-11 record followed, including five losses over the last six games. Colorado picked up its second win against Arizona State this year by eliminating the Sun Devils in the first round of the conference tournament, effectively knocking them out of NCAA Tournament contention.

Marquette

Record: 19-12, 9-9 in the Big East

Bad losses in February against St. John’s and DePaul will be the nails in the coffin of Marquette’s tournament dreams this season, especially after being blown out by No. 2 Villanova Thursday night.

Syracuse

Record: 20-13, 8-10 in the ACC

The Orange lost to 13-19 Georgia Tech and 11-20 Wake Forest this year, putting them in a position where they needed to make a deep run in the ACC Tournament. Unfortunately for Syracuse, the team bowed out of the tournament before the quarterfinals after failing to pull off a much-needed upset over UNC on Wednesday.

Penn State

Record: 21-13, 9-9 in the Big Ten

This team’s resumé is dying on its bad losses: home ones to Rider, Minnesota, and Wisconsin and a loss on the road to Indiana. However, three wins over Ohio State, a trip to the Big Ten Tournament semifinals, and solid performances against the likes of Purdue, Michigan, and Michigan State have the Nittany Lions still within striking distance of the NCAA Tournament bracket. Additionally, Penn State has the most wins out of any of the bubble teams with 21 victories this year.

Take away one of the bad losses or add in another big win over Michigan State, Michigan, or Purdue, and Penn State likely would have been accomplished enough to make the tournament. However, barring a lot of help or some extreme change in the committee’s selection process, the Nittany Lions will likely fall short.

Based off the research, I probably would have Penn State as the second team left out instead of the sixth team listed outside off the bubble. Here’s how I would rank these ten teams, in order:

Last Four In: UCLA, Oklahoma State, Louisville, Notre Dame

First Six Out: Oklahoma, Penn State, Alabama, Marquette, Arizona State, Syracuse