Since Penn State men’s basketball’s last NCAA Tournament appearance in 2011, the program has never held a winning record seven games into the Big Ten schedule. The lack of immediate in-conference success has hindered the Nittany Lions’ ability to make the big dance for more than a decade.

In years past, the Nittany Lions’ subpar record through the midway point of conference play has been an indication of its struggling on-court product. This year, Penn State’s current position towards the bottom of the Big Ten standings with a 2-5 conference record is independent of the current squad’s talent level and production. Rather, it is a direct result of the staunch competition faced by the Nittany Lions 11 games into its campaign.

Currently, Penn State ranks No. 1 in strength of schedule metrics, according to the College Basketball Power Index. In 11 contests, the Nittany Lions have played four AP Top 25-ranked teams, consisting of over 36% of its total matchups. Additionally, Penn State has played two other teams firmly within the top 40 of the BPI metrics, Indiana and Purdue.

Despite the Nittany Lions’ 1-5 record in six games against quadrant one opponents, analysts have the program positioned within the thick of the NET rankings, which adjust the national standings with metrics used by the NCAA Selection Committee.

With a No. 38 NET ranking, Penn State sits ahead of several teams ranked in the AP Top 25. In last week’s poll, No. 16 Virginia Tech, No. 20 Clemson, No. 21 Oregon, and No. 23 UConn all trailed the Nittany Lions in the metric-based evaluation standings.

Although Penn State is well-positioned within the BPI and NET rankings, the Nittany Lions remain outside of the projected 68-team tournament field at the season’s halfway point. Due to the loaded, top-heavy nature of the Big Ten, the conference is expected to have 11 teams in the big dance come Selection Sunday. Despite a two-game winning streak sparking hope into the program, the Nittany Lions still remain second-to-last in the conference standings.

However, the Nittany Lions have plenty of opportunities to skyrocket in the Big Ten standings with just over a month remaining in regular-season play. Penn State will play six nationally-ranked opponents in its final 11 games, beginning Wednesday night in Columbus against No. 13 Ohio State.

More importantly, the Nittany Lions have the chance to pick up eight quadrant one wins to end the regular season. For reference, last season’s historic team tallied eight quad one wins the entire season and was considered to be a tournament-lock.

Since adding a two-game conference winning streak under its belt following Saturday’s victory over Northwestern, the Nittany Lions are in a perfect spot to ride the momentum into the national spotlight. With three straight upcoming contests against ranked opponents, the stretch will likely dictate the direction of the season’s end result.

If Penn State can finish the year at a .500 clip, the program will almost certainly be heading to its first NCAA tournament in 10 seasons. The feat would be even more impressive for a team hindered with an 18-day COVID-19-related layoff between games to start the new year.

Conversely, if the Nittany Lions fail to eclipse the .500 mark, history suggests that a slight chance at a low-seeded berth still remains. Since the NCAA Tournament’s expansion to 64 teams in 1985, 25 teams have made the dance with a losing record. To further plea the Nittany Lions’ cause, none of which bolstered a top-50 net ranking or a top-25 strength of schedule.

Historically speaking, a losing record at the midway point of a Penn State basketball season would result in limited interest from fans and students alike. In a year filled with unprecedented circumstances, including the departure of one of the most successful player-coach duo’s in Penn State history, the Nittany Lions still have the chance to make history with 11 games remaining.