Following the Lady Lions 81-68 loss to No. 13 Michigan State Saturday, where Penn State saw its 16-point first-half lead slip away, it felt like the tipping point for a program that’s been trending in the wrong direction for two years now. As it stands, the Lady Lions are 8-16 overall and 1-12 in Big Ten play, sitting last in the conference standings.

This season felt like it was finally supposed to be different. The Lady Lions added real talent through the transfer portal, most notably Kiyomi McMiller, a former five-star recruit who arrived from Rutgers with a level of talent this program has never seen before.

Paired with Gracie Merkle, the expectation was that Penn State finally had a legitimate inside-out duo capable of competing in the Big Ten — and early in the season, that’s exactly what it looked like. Through the opening stretch of games, the Lady Lions played through the post, generated clean looks on the perimeter, and showed real offensive balance.

That momentum didn’t last, though. After a 6-1 start, things began to unravel before conference play even got underway, and once Big Ten games started, the slide only got worse.

Penn State opened conference play with 10 straight losses. It began in Iowa, where the Lady Lions were down double digits in the first quarter and never recovered. It was followed by a New Year’s Eve blowout at home against UCLA, a game that was effectively decided by halftime.

Even when Penn State showed signs of life, it never sustained. At Wisconsin, the Lady Lions carried momentum into the fourth quarter before surrendering a late run that ended in a 74-73 loss. Any hope of building on that performance was wiped away against Michigan when Penn State trailed by 27 at halftime.

Other losses followed in familiar fashion — slow starts, second-half breakdowns, or late-game collapses — including a close loss to Rutgers and lopsided road losses at Washington and Oregon.

The struggles didn’t begin this season, though. Last year, Penn State finished 10-19 and 1-17 in Big Ten play, ending the season at the bottom of the conference and missing the Big Ten Tournament entirely. It marked a significant step back for the program after the optimism the previous season brought.

Carolyn Kieger’s job status was openly questioned following the season. Between several factors, including the on-court results, continued roster turnovers, and an Onward State investigation that brought increased attention to Kieger’s program after allegations by former players from both Penn State and Marquette, many expected a change. Instead, Penn State chose to retain Kieger, showing confidence that the program was still heading in the right direction.

With yet another season slipping away, it’s worth zooming out and looking at the bigger picture of Kieger’s tenure at Penn State.

Before arriving in Happy Valley, there was a real reason to believe Kieger could elevate Penn State women’s basketball as a whole. At Marquette, she built one of the most consistent programs in the Big East, leading the Golden Eagles to three consecutive NCAA Tournament appearances, two Big East regular-season championships, and the 2016-17 Big East Tournament title. Kieger was named Big East Co-Coach of the Year during the 2017-18 season, and her teams were regularly nationally relevant.

When Penn State hired Kieger, the resume suggested a coach capable of building and sustaining success at the Power Five level.

But Kieger’s first year in Happy Valley offered little optimism. The Lady Lions finished 7-23 overall and 1-17 in Big Ten play during the 2019-20 season, ending the season at the bottom of the conference. The struggles were largely chalked up to a rebuild, and set a relatively low bar for the program moving forward.

Kieger’s rebuild showed only marginal signs of life in 2020-21. Penn State improved to 9-15 overall and 6-13 in conference play, but still finished in the bottom half of the conference. While the win total slightly rose, the Lady Lions remained uncompetitive against the league’s top programs.

The 2021-22 season followed a similar script. The Lady Lions finished 11-18 overall and 5-13 in Big Ten play, marking yet another year of little improvement.

In 2022-23, the record ticked up to 14-17 overall, but conference play told a familiar story. Penn State finished 4-14 in the Big Ten, landing near the bottom once more and missing the NCAA tournament. Similar to this season, any optimism generated by the non-conference record against weak teams faded once league play began, reinforcing that Penn State was unable to sustain progress against Big Ten play.

The 2023-24 season, though, appeared to be the turning point. Penn State finished 22-13 overall and 9-9 in Big Ten play, advancing to the semifinals of the WBIT, and cracked the AP Top 25 for one week — the only time in Kieger’s entire Penn State head coaching career that one of her teams has been nationally ranked. For the first time, Penn State appeared relevant on a national stage. But even that season, the Lady Lions failed to earn a bid to the NCAA Tournament.

In 2024-25, Penn State regressed immensely, finishing 10-19 overall and 1-17 in Big Ten play, again landing at the bottom of the conference and missing the Big Ten Tournament. That season also coincided with scrutiny, as an Onward State investigation sparked increased attention to alleged misconduct on Kieger’s part against former players. With the result sliding backward and outside pressure mounting, Kieger’s job was widely considered at stake — yet Penn State opted to keep her.

And finally, this season. The Lady Lions opened Big Ten play at 0-10, suffered repeated double-digit losses, blew late leads, and continued to struggle. Despite the arrival of elite talent, the program has reverted to the same patterns that have defined much of Kieger’s time in Happy Valley.

Across seven seasons, the broader resume is impossible to overlook. Kieger has produced one winning season, finished at or near the bottom of the Big Ten nearly every season, cracked the national ranking for only one week, and failed to establish any sort of relevance. Progress has come in short bursts, only to be followed by regression, leaving the program in a constant cycle of failure.

If Penn State women’s basketball wants to move forward in a conference that continues to raise its standards, it’s more than fair to ask whether remaining under Kieger’s leadership is in the program’s best interest.