After a disappointing regular season which saw it finish last in the Big Ten standings with a 3-17 conference record, Penn State men’s basketball is heading to Chicago for the Big Ten Tournament. After a one-year format of 15 teams left them out of the dance in 2024-25, the Nittany Lions return as the No. 18 seed this March.

It won’t be easy. They’d have to win six consecutive games in six days to run the table and win an automatic berth into the NCAA Tournament. Their first step into channeling their inner Jalen Pickett begins on Tuesday night with a clash against a hometown Northwestern team at 7:30 p.m.

The Nittany Lions are not even listed on FanDuel’s betting odds (along with Rutgers and Maryland) and are a staggering +50000 on BetMGM, which gives them implied odds of 0.2%. As harsh as it sounds, it’s reasonable for the team with the worst regular season to have the longest odds, but just how improbable is that 0.2%? Here are some things with a higher chance of happening:

Brandon Miller Winning NBA Finals MVP (+40000)

The Charlotte Hornets are on fire, rebounding from an awful 16-28 start to win 16 of their last 21 and are firmly in the mix to make the playoffs for the first time in a decade. Brandon Miller, a star third-year player from Alabama, is a key part of their turnaround as a co-star next to LaMelo Ball. That said, the odds are long for the Hornets to win it all, let alone Miller outlasting Ball and star rookie Kon Knueppel for Finals MVP.

Toronto Raptors To Win NBA Finals (+40000)

Staying in the NBA, the Toronto Raptors are having a nice bounce-back season, currently sitting as the No. 5 seed in the Eastern Conference after missing the playoffs the previous three seasons. Putting aside that it is already extremely uncommon for a team with a low seed to run the table, the Raptors have also been extremely bad against teams with a better record than them, currently sitting at 1-13 against the top-seven teams in the NBA.

Miami (OH) To Make The Final Four (+15000)

Looking for a Cinderella pick for your March Madness bracket? As of Monday night, the Miami RedHawks are a perfect 31-0 entering their conference tournament, becoming the first team in 35 years to win their first 31 games of a season. There’s no guarantee they go dancing, as the relative weakness of the MAC has bracketologists unconvinced they deserve an at-large bid if someone else takes the automatic bid. But if they do, they’ll be a fan favorite.

Can the cardiac RedHawks prove they belong and replicate the magic of 2018 Loyola-Chicago? Well, the implied odds say there’s a 0.7% chance.

New York Jets To Win Super Bowl LXI (+25000)

The Jets are off to an active start to NFL free agency, but they have a lot of holes to fill. After all, they were the first team in NFL history to go without an interception on defense in a season, and no clear direction for the quarterback position. It’s not surprising that the Jets have the worst odds to win the Super Bowl, but it says a lot that the books believe it’s twice as likely as the Nittany Lions running the table in Chicago.

Deshaun Watson To Win 2026 NFL MVP (+40000)

There are so many things wrong with this. Watson hasn’t played an NFL snap since tearing his Achilles in October 2024. He hasn’t played at a Pro Bowl level since he was with the Houston Texans in 2020. The Cleveland Browns already appear invested in the likes of Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders and could still be in the market for a veteran to allow them to develop.

The odds that Watson is even their full-time starter in 2026 are extremely unlikely, let alone playing at an MVP level.

Chicago White Sox to win 2026 World Series (+25000)

There are several teams with longer odds to win the World Series, but the White Sox are pretty unlikely in their own right. They made a big gamble for upside in signing Japanese infielder Munetaka Murakami, but ultimately didn’t do much to improve last year’s 102-loss team. The AL Central is forecasted to be the weakest division in baseball, so if a few things break their way, they could challenge for that, but the World Series? Let’s slow down.

Ozzie Albies To Win 2026 World Baseball Classic MVP (+30000)

The World Baseball Classic has already provided thrilling action this spring as baseball’s version of Olympic basketball and hockey. Ozzie Albies, a multi-time all-star for the Atlanta Braves, is one of the premier players for the Netherlands, so if they managed to win it all, it wouldn’t be too unreasonable, right?

Here’s the problem. The Netherlands has already been eliminated from the knockout round after losing two games in Pool D, meaning this is logistically impossible. Albies hit a walk-off home run, the first in WBC history, in the team’s win over Nicaragua, but other than that? Hard to tell why this is still an option.

Bosnia and Herzegovina To Win 2026 World Cup (+30000)

Bosnia and Herzegovina is a small Eastern European country in the Balkans, home to around three million people, and is bordered by Serbia and Croatia. They are not particularly known for soccer, having only participated in the 2014 World Cup. They haven’t officially qualified for this year’s edition, needing to defeat Wales and the winner of Italy and Northern Ireland in consecutive games in late March to qualify. Maybe there’s some magic left.

2024 YR4 Hitting Earth In 2032 (less than 1%)

For a brief time in February 2025, astronomers observed that there was as big as a 3.1% chance that an asteroid named 2024 YR4 would hit Earth in 2032. Now, further research on the asteroid’s orbit has determined that the chances of the large celestial object hitting Earth are now considered negligible, but it is still projected to pass within 200,000 miles of Earth, which is relatively close given the vast expanse of space.

Flipping A Coin And It Landing On Heads Eight Times In A Row (0.39%)

In theory, it’s a pure 50/50 chance that, when you flip a coin, it’ll land on heads. But the odds that you continue to land on heads when repeatedly flipping a coin drastically decrease, to the point where you only have a 1-in-256 chance to do it eight consecutive times. The 1-in-500 implied odds of Penn State winning the Big Ten Tournament are pretty close to the odds of doing it nine consecutive times (1-in-512).

Catching A Foul Ball At A Penn State Baseball Game

Have you ever caught a foul ball at a baseball game? There’s no exact science to it, and there are limited opportunities in a game given how many foul balls don’t reach the stands, hit the netting, or go all the way out of the stadium. Odds are, if you go to enough games, you’ll get an opportunity. An analysis from 2017 suggests there’s a 1-in-835 chance to get one at a particular major league game, but those stadiums hold significantly more people than Medlar Field at Lubrano Park.

Even on a packed Dollar Dog Night, the odds would certainly be better than 0.2%. If you choose to go to a more sparse game during spring break or when it’s cold and balmy outside, you’ll have significantly more space to roam and get a ball, even if you don’t catch it on the fly.

Getting Football Tickets In The Student Lottery Four Consecutive Years (0.35%)

Ah, the football student ticket lottery, the much-discussed method for students to get season tickets at Beaver Stadium the last two years.

The lottery was only instituted in 2024, but it will be with us for the foreseeable future, and we will all be at the mercy of it again in the fall. There are approximately 21,000 student tickets available in the lottery, with over 86,000 students eligible across all campuses and classes. We don’t know how many people apply for the lottery every year, but if we assume that every single student does, your chances of getting lucky four years in a row are 1-in-285. Doesn’t make you feel good, huh?