What’s that old expression? It ain’t over until the fat lady sings?

Well, for the 2026 Penn State baseball team, the lady is starting to warm up her vocal cords. Tied with Northwestern for the bottom spot in the Big Ten standings sits the Nittany Lions, with a conference record of 5-16.

The squad is on a three-game skid after getting swept out in Eugene, Oregon, by the now No. 13 Oregon Ducks. In its last nine Big Ten games, Penn State has only come out with a pair of wins. It’s been a trend the entire season, whether in conference or not, because head coach Mike Gambino and his staff built a schedule that, if successful, would help make a case for the program to earn an at-large bid into the NCAA Regionals.

Unfortunately, that hasn’t panned out.

“Nobody’s been tremendously happy [over] the last couple of weeks,” Gambino said. “I’m glad we’re in a spot — for 25 years, this is just what it was for this program. And now, none of us are happy where we are, but we have a long way to go.”

The team did have a long way to go when Gambino told the media that a few weeks ago, but now, they’re staring down only three remaining weekend series and sitting five games out of the final Big Ten playoff spot.

Luckily for them, the three series come against Minnesota, Washington, and Maryland, who all sit towards the bottom of the Big Ten. And, Penn State will need to surpass at least two of those teams if they want a chance to play at TD Ameritrade in Omaha, Nebraska.

“The thing the whole team keeps saying is, ‘Just keep doing what we’re doing.’ And you start stacking wins, you start stacking weekends, and everybody knows that we’re going to have to fight and scrap to get in that Big Ten Tournament,” Gambino said. “But, you put us in TD Ameritrade, this group is going to go, we all know that.”

At this point in the season, though, it may take more than Penn State winning to get them into the tournament. In the teams’ remaining nine games, the Nittany Lions will have to go 9-0, with no outside help, to essentially guarantee a spot. But we haven’t seen them win a weekend series yet in 2026, let alone sweep three.

So, they’re going to need other games to go their way. Let’s break it down:

There are four teams ahead of the Nittany Lions. Michigan State is the last team in right now, with a 10-14 record and two conference series remaining against No. 1 UCLA and Michigan. Minnesota sits in the spot below them, with an 8-13 record and three series remaining against Penn State, Michigan, and Nebraska.

Indiana and Maryland, both one game ahead of Penn State, have three weekend series apiece. For Indiana, it’s Northwestern, Purdue, and Illinois. For Maryland, it’s Michigan, Rutgers, and Penn State.

Each team above the Nittany Lions has at least one weekend in which they are at risk of getting swept or dropping the series. For Michigan State is certainly doomed with the best team in the country on the horizon in UCLA, and a solid Western Michigan team after that — at best, they go 2-4, giving Penn State a sliver of a chance.

Minnesota has Nebraska and Michigan on its schedule, both loseable away series, but first they have a three-game stint in Happy Valley. If Penn State steers its ship the right way, the Nittany Lions could kick off a brutal road trip for Minnesota that would also clear a bypass for themselves.

The problem for Penn State’s Big Ten Tournament dreams is Indiana. The Hoosiers play a bottom-feeder Northwestern team, a beatable squad of Fighting Illini, and could definitely take a game from Purdue, though all three series will be away. The Nittany Lions will need Indiana to drop at least six of these nine games to surmount their position.

And if all goes right, the Maryland series will be the determining factor for Penn State’s playoff bid. But, for now, the Nittany Lions’ eyes are set on the Minnesota Gophers, who visit this weekend for a three-game set. Penn State will have a fresh bullpen after Wednesday night’s cancellation, and plenty of fan support with their newly announced Dollar Dog Weekend.

There’s no better way to kick off a nine-game postseason rally than with three consecutive Dollar Dog games, even if they’re modified.