Penn State women’s soccer won its first postseason match last Sunday with a dominant 3-1 victory over Indiana.

However, the Nittany Lions haven’t actually started the Big Ten Tournament…until now. The win over the Hoosiers qualified Penn State to the four-team conference playoff that will determine the Big Ten’s automatic qualifier for the NCAA Tournament.

As the highest seed from the regular season, No. 4 Penn State will face the lowest seed remaining, Iowa. The Hawkeyes finished No. 12 in the conference, but two upset wins earned them a trip to Jeffrey Field. In the other semifinal, Wisconsin will take on No. 22 Rutgers, with Thursday’s semifinal winners advancing to Sunday’s final.

Here is everything you need to know heading into the weekend for Erica Dambach’s high-flying Nittany Lions:

Previewing The Enemy

The Hawkeyes have been an interesting case study this year, with a wild array of results that has inexplicably brought them two wins away from NCAA qualification. However, Iowa needs to get through a brick wall Thursday night in Penn State.

Iowa is led by head coach Dave Dilanni, who is in the seventh year of his tenure in Iowa City. Before coming to the Big Ten, Dilanni was the head coach at Grand Valley State for 11 seasons.

Despite being one of the worst teams in the Big Ten all year, Iowa has periodically been a successful program. Last season, the fifth-seeded Hawkeyes got bounced in the quarterfinals by eventual champions Penn State and qualified for the NCAA Tournament.

This year, Iowa went a dismal 2-8-1 in conference play before shocking Illinois and Minnesota in last week’s Regional Weekend.

However, that record is a bit misleading. The team lost by more than two goals only once, a 3-0 defeat early in the year to Illinois. When the Nittany Lions went to Iowa City on March 25, the champions could only squeeze one goal by the Hawkeyes via Ally Schlegel.

Another look at @allyschlegel34's goal on a fantastic ball from @frankiet01!#WeAre #PSWS pic.twitter.com/8TgZtV4X88

— Penn State Women’s Soccer (@PennStateWSOC) March 25, 2021

Clearly, Iowa can compete with anyone in the conference due to relatively stout defensive abilities. Iowa conceded 13 goals in 11 games in the regular season, a much better clip than its No. 12 Big Ten ranking would suggest. And through 183 minutes of postseason play, the Cinderella program has been scored on just one time.

The problem comes with a stale offense, which Penn State will need to exploit if it wants to comfortably advance to the finals. Iowa scored only three goals all season but somehow managed to put away four in two postseason matches.

Sara Wheaton will be the most important player for Iowa on Thursday. The Arizona-born defender will be forced to organize a backline against the likes of All-Big Ten honorees Ally Schlegel, Sam Coffey, Frankie Tagliaferri, Kerry Abello, and more.

NCAA Tournament Implications

Penn State recently earned the No. 4 rank in the nation. But more importantly, the Nittany Lions are the second-best non-ACC team behind No. 3 UCLA.

The ACC played its season in the fall, knowing that the NCAA Tournament wouldn’t be until now. Some schools have played non-conference opponents from neighboring conferences. However, No. 1 Florida State hasn’t played since November despite going 11-0 in the fall.

It is unclear how the committee will rank teams who’ve remained idle or if they will even accept a bid to the Big Dance. But if Penn State can win the Big Ten Tournament and UCLA slips up in the next week, there is an argument for the Nittany Lions to earn the overall No. 1 seed in North Carolina.

Prediction

Penn State should win this tournament. Penn State needs to win this tournament. And there is no way we can point to something that Iowa, Wisconsin, or Rutgers offers and say that they won’t win.

The Nittany Lions should toss Iowa aside despite the Hawkeyes’ good form. Schlegel, Tagliaferri, Abello, and the rest of the front line are too strong to not put a few goals away on Thursday. From there, they should be favored heavily against either opponent.