Staff Predictions: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 4 Ohio State
This is the game everybody has been waiting for.
Penn State-Ohio State is always a great matchup and we have another one in store, folks. This year’s game is between two top-five teams, and it’s the first time Penn State is the higher-ranked team since 2017’s matchup. That game ended with No. 2 Penn State losing 39-38 in Columbus to the No. 6-ranked Buckeyes.
The Nittany Lions are 1-9 against Ohio State over the last 10 years with their only win coming in 2016, and our staffers are split on whether or not Penn State can end its losing streak against the Buckeyes.
Fernando Martinez Ruiz De Esparza (7-0): Ohio State 27, Penn State 21
Folks, I’m sorry, but I’ve seen this movie many times before, and I’m not falling for it again.
I understand the Nittany Lions showed tremendous resilience last week in their win against Wisconsin after Drew Allar got injured. This team is special, and I think this could be the year they finally beat Ohio State, especially having the home-field advantage. However, until further notice, I will never trust James Franklin in big games like this one.
Since becoming the head coach of Penn State, James Franklin has a record of 3-18 against top-10 teams.
Even though I think Drew Allar will play, I’m worried about how mobile he will be on gameday. Also, this team still hasn’t overcome its first-half struggles, and this will come back to haunt it against a great team like Ohio State.
As for Ohio State, I understand that it didn’t play well last week against Nebraska, but this team is very talented. It has a lot of talented playmakers like Jeremiah Smith. It almost beat No. 1 Oregon on the road, and Will Howard is very motivated to face Penn State after being snubbed as a high school recruit. They have been more tested than the Nittany Lions this season and they will be ready for this challenge.
Sadly, I think Ohio State will win this game, but I really hope I am wrong.
Aidan Conrad (7-0): Penn State 27, Ohio State 24
Earlier in the season, I was certain I would choose the Buckeyes in this game. Since then, both teams have trended slightly in different directions, making this matchup much closer than I once anticipated.
I never shied away from picking the Nittany Lions during my three years with the blog and I’m not starting now.
Michael Siroty (6-0): Ohio State 34, Penn State 30
This one hurt to write, and while I hope I’m wrong, I don’t see Penn State beating Ohio State. While they haven’t had a great last couple of weeks, I still believe the Buckeyes have the most talented roster in college football.
If Drew Allar isn’t a full go, I’m wary of Beau Pribula’s ability to read a defense, as good on all three levels as Ohio State’s is. On the other side, Ohio State will take advantage of the tackling struggles and lapses in the secondary that I’ve seen from Penn State’s defense so far this year.
Running back Quinshon Judkins is as good at forcing missed tackles as they get, and through the air, the Buckeyes will push Penn State’s depth with wide receivers Jeremiah Smith, Emeka Egbuka, and Carnell Tate.
Again, I hope this isn’t true. It’s just a prediction. Let’s play ball.
Cooper Cazares (6-0): Ohio State 35, Penn State 21
Prove me wrong, Penn State (please). I really want to be wrong about this, but there’s no real reason to think this year will differ from the others. This happens every year.
Penn State looks promising after some OK wins, and Ohio State looks “vulnerable” or “beatable” until they play each other and the script is always the same. Penn State will play Ohio State tough for three quarters and then a couple of big plays in the fourth for the Buckeyes always separate them from the Nittany Lions.
The last time Ohio State came to town, this was the exact situation. Please prove me wrong, Penn State. Until then, I can’t bet on you to win the big games, despite the number next to your name.
James Russell (4-0): Ohio State 34, Penn State 28
Penn State-Ohio State has been a lopsided matchup for nearly a decade. James Franklin has only beaten Ohio State once in nine matchups. It will take a lot to beat this Ohio State team, but Penn State has the tools to succeed.
The Nittany Lions secondary will be tested this week against a star-studded wide receiver room headlined by senior Emeka Egbuka. The Buckeyes have found another gem in true freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who has been a nightmare for defenses across the country. Penn State cornerbacks A.J. Harris and Jalen Kimber will have their hands full, and the absence of K.J. Winston could be felt immensely.
The Buckeyes also boast a two-headed monster at the running back position with TreyVeyon Henderson and Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins. Ohio State’s offensive line is banged up, missing multiple starters. The Nittany Lions defensive line could be a deciding factor in this matchup, I believe Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton will pressure Ohio State quarterback Will Howard multiple times on Saturday.
The Penn State offensive line must continue to protect quarterback Drew Allar and set the line of scrimmage to get the offense in rhythm. The Nittany Lions are at their best when they are dominating the line of scrimmage and running the football. I expect Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen to be involved early to set the tone.
It will be interesting to see how Andy Kotelnicki involves Tyler Warren against a formidable Ohio State defense. There isn’t much margin for error against this Ohio State team, and Allar must make the right decisions. This game is a toss-up for me Penn State is hot, and Ohio State looked beatable against Nebraska. This one will be a nail-biter, folks.
CJ Gill (7-0): Penn State 31, Ohio State 27
This is the year it happens.
I was in the stands for the Ohio State upset in 2016 and the Big Ten Championship game against Wisconsin. I remember how confident that team played. I remember the toughness and attitude those Nittany Lions had.
I see the same qualities in this 2024 Penn State team. The blue and white have dealt with injuries on both sides of the ball all year, but you wouldn’t be able to tell by the product on the field. James Franklin will need to ask his team for more of the same on Saturday against the Buckeyes.
Penn State matches up well with Ohio State for the first time in seasons. Tom Allen’s defensive line might be the key to victory. If Abdul Carter and Co. can consistently put pressure on Will Howard, he becomes a far less effective quarterback. The secondary will have its hands full with Ohio State’s skill players on the outside, but again, getting to the quarterback can help that group out.
Offensively, Andy Kotelnicki will put his guys in a position to score enough on Saturday to come out of Saturday with a win. Drew Allar, Tyler Warren, or Nick Singleton will have a legacy game to finish the job for the Nittany Lions. The only question that remains is where do we take the goalposts?
Jamie Lynch (7-0): Penn State 28, Ohio State 27
Ohio State. We meet again.
For years you have tormented us, picked on us, belittled us. But when you step foot into the college football cathedral on Saturday, all of that will be forgotten. A storm will be brewing in Happy Valley this weekend, but no need to look up at the sky. A sea of blue and white will engulf the turf at Beaver Stadium, putting the goalposts, and the Buckeyes’ playoff hopes, at serious risk.
Penn State, our moment is here. And while we’ve been let down so many times before, something about this team feels different. Is it the coaching? The depth? The talent? No, it’s the grit. If this season played out in previous years, it is not far-fetched to say that the Nittany Lions would be 5-2 entering this showdown.
Penn State has some favorable matchups against the scarlet and gray. Not to mention, the Buckeyes are a little beat up, and put up a measly showing against Nebraska last week. If Penn State could have picked a week to play Ohio State, this would have been the opportune time.
The eyes of the college football universe will descend upon State College this weekend. The first top-five matchup at home for Penn State since 1999 will commence. I will never bet against the Nittany Lions. Neither should you.
Nolan Wick (6-1): Ohio State 35, Penn State 31
It’s almost always a good game between these teams, with Penn State falling agonizingly short. That’s what I believe will happen again this time.
Ohio State’s wide receivers will be too much for Penn State’s secondary to handle. The Buckeyes have one of the best receiving corps in the country, while the Nittany Lions struggled to contain Wisconsin and USC’s playmakers the last two games.
The Buckeyes usually win their big games (excluding Michigan), no matter how iffy things have been. The Nittany Lions look good, but picking them to win against a team they haven’t beaten since Barack Obama was in office feels naive.
CJ Doebler (7-0): Penn State 20, Ohio State 17
I waited until the last minute to send in this prediction, and I’m still not sure if I’m making the right choice. While it feels like Penn State is in a better position than ever to beat Ohio State this week, it’s been this way before. The Nittany Lions traveled to Columbus as the No. 2 team in the nation in 2017, and we know how that ended. This time, though, they’re at home.
I think Penn State’s defensive line is going to be a huge factor in this game. Ohio State struggled to run the ball last week against Nebraska and suffered another injury with Zen Michalski at left tackle. Even potentially missing Dani Dennis-Sutton, I think Penn State’s front seven causes issues for Will Howard and the Ohio State offense this week.
As for the Nittany Lions’ offense, it’s hard to tell. Drew Allar practiced during the viewing window on Wednesday, but Beau Pribula could still get the start come Saturday. There are fewer issues with the Andy Kotelnicki-led offense than last year’s group, and we’ve seen flashes of talent across the roster. It’s been a dogfight the last few years, and I don’t have any reason to believe this year is any different. I may regret it, but give me Penn State in front of the home crowd.
Mitch Corcoran (7-0): Ohio State 26, Penn State 22
If this game is at night, I think this ends in a different result. However, that’s not the case, and I blame FOX for Penn State’s loss. I’m mostly kidding, by the way.
I think this one is a close, defensive battle. Although Penn State’s secondary might struggle against Ohio State’s receivers, the injuries to the Buckeyes’ offensive line will be a big problem in both the passing and running game, even if Danni Dennis-Sutton is out.
On the other side, I think Ohio State’s secondary will be too much for Penn State’s receivers, excluding Tyler Warren. I think Drew Allar plays and the offense runs the ball well and even makes a few big plays.
Penn State has a legitimate shot to win this, but if history is any indication, I think the Nittany Lions somehow find a way to lose again in another close, hard-fought matchup.
Joe Lister (6-1): Penn State 27, Ohio State 30
I’ve seen this one before, folks.
Penn State simply doesn’t have the formula to beat Ohio State. The only time the Nittany Lions have beaten the Buckeyes in the last decade was off a fluke play. This isn’t about skill sets, Tyler Warren, or Jeremiah Smith. It’s about mentality. James Franklin and the Nittany Lions simply don’t have it.
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