Big Ten Championship Staff Predictions: No. 3 Penn State Football vs. No. 1 Oregon
It’s been eight years, folks.
Penn State football is back in the Big Ten Championship for the first time since 2016. In that game, the Nittany Lions made a 14-point second-half comeback to defeat No. 6 Wisconsin 38-31.
Penn State will face No. 1 Oregon this time around. The Ducks are 12-0 and have made the conference title game in their first season in the Big Ten. The winner of the game will likely hold the No. 1 seed in the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff.
Penn State is 3-1 all-time against Oregon, and it’s the first time since the 1995 Rose Bowl the two teams will play each other. However, most of our staffers think the Ducks will continue their undefeated season and be named the Big Ten Champions.
Fernando Martinez Ruiz De Esparza (12-0): Oregon 35, Penn State 27
Folks, I did not expect to be writing a prediction this week, but here we are.
The Nittany Lions, against all odds (thank you, Michigan), made the Big Ten Championship for the first time since 2016. Despite getting off to a slow start in the first quarter against Maryland, they put on a clinic right after on both sides of the ball to close out the Terrapins in a blowout fashion. Even though Penn State played very well, I still have a lot of questions about this team against elite teams like Oregon.
Despite its 11-1 record, Penn State only has one win against top-25 opponents this season. The lone win came against Illinois, and the Nittany Lions didn’t look good against Ohio State despite the close scoreline. The Nittany Lions struggled to dominate mid-tier teams like Bowling Green and Minnesota and have had to depend on Tyler Warren so much that no wide receiver has been able to step up for the Nittany Lions yet.
With Warren expected to be heavily covered against Oregon, players like Nick Singleton or Trey Wallace will have to step up for the offense if Penn State wants to pull off the upset.
As for Oregon, this team is very talented. The Ducks are the only undefeated team left in the FBS and after surviving Wisconsin in the second-to-last game, they responded big time by dominating Washington last week. It has a Heisman-contender quarterback in Dillon Gabriel and a lot of playmakers like Jordan James will cause problems for Penn State’s defense.
This is Penn State’s toughest opponent, and it will be interesting to see how they respond to this challenge. Sadly, I still don’t trust James Franklin to get the job done in big games. For that reason, Oregon will win this game, but I really hope that I am wrong.
Michael Siroty (10-0): Oregon 34, Penn State 24
CJ Gill (10-1): Oregon 31, Penn State 27
Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks are the best offense Tom Allen’s defense will face this season. The Nittany Lions will have their hands full on that side of the ball all night long in Indianapolis. Depth issues at interior defensive line and linebacker will be exploited by the high-powered Oregon offense that has playmakers at every position.
If Penn State wants to knock off the No. 1 team in the country and win the Big Ten Championship, Abdul Carter and Jaylen Reed will need to have career days, and the blue and white will need to force a few turnovers.
Drew Allar will have to play his best football to date for the offense. Nick Singleton and Tyler Warren will need to carry the load and a healthy Singleton is a good sign for Nittany Lion fans hoping for an upset. But the biggest question remains as it has all season long. Can a wide receiver step up and make plays for Allar?
If someone does, then Penn State could find itself as the victors Saturday night. That really hasn’t happened all season, and it held James Franklin’s team back against Ohio State a month ago.
Charlie Pegler (1-0): Penn State 27, Oregon 24
Alright, let’s address the noise — plenty of people are picking Oregon to win this game, but let me tell you, that’s a load of malarkey. Dillon Gabriel might be a lefty, but he’s no Tim Tebow. He’s about to face 60 minutes of relentless pressure from Dani Dennis-Sutton, Abdul Carter, and probably an interception from Jaylen Reed, why not? It’s not going to be pretty for Gabriel.
Now, onto our offense. Coach Dan Lanning called Drew Allar “just a composed operator” and frankly, that’s insulting. Drew Allar isn’t just composed, he’s a wrecking ball ready to dismantle Oregon’s subpar defense. Nick Singleton is back to his dominant form, Kaytron Allen is a force of nature, and Tyler Warren? He’s playing like the best player in college football right now.
So Penn State fans, enough with the talk about playing a home playoff game. We’re not losing anything. This is going to be a gritty, hard-fought battle, and we’re coming out on top. Get ready for Penn State to lock in the No. 1 seed come New Year’s Day. Buckle up for a barn burner, and as always, We Are!
Cooper Cazares (11-0): Oregon 24, Penn State 20
Penn State has found ways to win games all season. However, it once again got beaten by Ohio State. With that in mind, I still can’t bet on the Nittany Lions to handle business against the top-ranked Ducks. This doesn’t mean it won’t be close, though.
Oregon has looked beatable all year, with close games coming against inferior opponents such as Idaho, Boise State, and Wisconsin. Penn State can win this game, but it will be up to the defense to score to sway this game its way. Oregon’s defense will give the Penn State offense a run for its money, slowing down Tyler Warren and forcing the Nittany Lions to beat them with any other player.
As I said before, games against quality opponents have not gone Penn State’s way in recent years. I can’t bet on the Nittany Lions beating the Ducks this Saturday in the Big Ten Championship.
Aidan Conrad (9-1): Penn State 35, Oregon 31
Party like it’s 2016.
Dillon Williams (2-0): Oregon 28, Penn State 24
Well, here we are! The fact that Penn State made it to the Big Ten Championship has been such a pleasant surprise. Oregon has a high-octane passing offense that’s No. 2 in the country.
With that being said, I believe that Penn State’s defense will be able to slow down Oregon’s offense from its typical output. Pass rushers Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton will be key players in this game as Dillon Gabriel will look to his star players such as wide receiver Evan Stewart.
On the other side of the ball, I believe that Andy Kotelnicki will make an effort to get his star players involved early. That means lots of touches for Nick Singleton, Kaytron Allen, and Tyler Warren. Against an Oregon defense that is 22nd in the nation and allowing over 100 rushing yards a game, Penn State’s success with the run will be a key to its success. I’m also interested to see how the offense will use the run game as a complement to their explosive play-action game.
Overall, I think that it will be a relatively high-scoring game where Penn State falls just short of its goal, losing to a late-game go-ahead touchdown drive powered by a deep Oregon passing play. The close nature of the game will lead to Penn State being looked at favorably by the College Football Playoff committee.
Jamie Lynch (11-1): Penn State 35, Oregon 24
As Gus Johnson once proclaimed, we’ve got a ballgame in Naptown, folks. Eight years after a comeback that will forever be etched in Penn State history, the Nittany Lions return to Lucas Oil Stadium in search of Big Ten supremacy.
Though unbeaten thus far, Oregon does not seem immortal. The Ducks escaped with wins over Idaho, Boise State, and Wisconsin. Not to mention they gave up nearly 40 combined points to Maryland and Washington, whereas the Nittany Lions gave up a grand total of 13.
This game will be won in the trenches. Whoever can buy their quarterback more time will win the game. Oregon has a lot of size and speed on both sides of the ball, so the offensive line for Penn State will need to find a way to protect Drew Allar.
Defense wins championships, and I do think Penn State’s defense will be the difference. Abdul Carter looked hungry at the end of the Maryland game last week, and I expect him to feast on Saturday. I think Tom Allen’s group will come alive in the second half, much like they’ve done all season, and wreak havoc in the backfield.
If Penn State can find a way to click on offense, the sky’s the limit. Look for Nick Singleton to play a big role in the scheme. Julian Flemming has Big Ten Championship experience, so if he can step up for some big plays downfield, the Nittany Lions would greatly benefit. I’m not necessarily predicting a Saeed Blacknall-esque performance, but hey, who says no?
Camelot awaits.
Nolan Wick (11-1): Oregon 38, Penn State 35
This game will be much closer than people think. Oregon struggled to close out Boise State, Ohio State, and Wisconsin, and the cross-country travel that has plagued teams on both sides of the Big Ten will be problematic.
However, I’m picking the Nittany Lions to lose a close game because the Ducks have more ways to beat opponents. Their offense is better in many categories, and they found a way to topple Ohio State’s top-ranked total defense. On the contrary, Penn State’s wide receivers have struggled all season, and the running backs have been inconsistent.
Penn State has two saving graces, though. First, its defense: Penn State edges Oregon defensively, and the Nittany Lions generally contained top playmakers from other teams. The defensive line has been outstanding and can disrupt any team in the country. Second, the Nittany Lions are playing with house money the Ducks don’t have. They weren’t supposed to be here. They snuck in the back door and don’t have the same expectations they would’ve had if they’d defeated the Buckeyes and gone 12-0 like Oregon. Lack of pressure can be a factor.
Ultimately, Oregon’s star power narrowly gets it done. But as we’ve seen this season, nobody appears to be great, and those who appear good don’t always play like it. This is a coin-flip game, and neither outcome would surprise me.
CJ Doebler (11-1): Oregon 31, Penn State 27
Indianapolis is going to be the place to be this Saturday, folks,
Penn State football is competing for the Big Ten crown for the first time in eight years, and multiple players have said they’re both excited and prepared for the challenge of playing the No. 1 team in the country. The Ducks are No. 1 for a reason, though, and I don’t know if Penn State can pull this one out.
Oregon has a presence on the defensive line, but so does Penn State. The Ducks are going to have a problem running the ball against the defensive line that includes Abdul Carter, Dani Dennis-Sutton, Zane Durant, and Dvon J-Thomas. That group is going to be critical to the outcome on Saturday, but I think the secondary is going to have some issues with the Oregon passing game.
This one could go either way and will come down to the fourth quarter, but I think the Ducks win the Big Ten.
Mitch Corcoran (12-0): Penn State 23, Oregon 20
Hear me out. Everybody always points to James Franklin’s record in big games and how bad it is. But what if I told you that this isn’t a big game? Some of you may be thinking, “Mitch, what the Hell are you talking about? Penn State is playing the No. 1 team in the country in the conference championship. How is this not a big game?”
Other than seeding, this game has no major implications. There isn’t a ton of pressure on Franklin to win because guess what? If Penn State loses, it plays again next week in the College Football Playoff.
Of course, I’m sure everyone in the Lasch Building would love a win to fill the trophy case, but it’s not the end of the world if the Nittany Lions lose. If Texas beats Georgia, Penn State will likely maintain the No. 5 seed and host a home playoff game. If Texas loses, that’s OK because Penn State will likely still be a top-eight seed and still host a home playoff game.
I don’t mean to diminish the value of the Big Ten Championship but with the setup of the new 12-team playoff, no team will be eliminated and there is no do-or-die pressure like there has been in the past against Ohio State and Michigan. Franklin has a cushion to fall back on and if the Nittany Lions win, they have a few weeks off and play in the second round of the playoff.
Joe Lister (11-1): Penn State 31, Oregon 18
Screw it. Hand me the Kool-Aid. I’m chugging all of it.
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