In what is quickly becoming a lost season for Penn State football, there’s been a lot of time for reflection. In one fell swoop, two different eras ended on October 11 following the Nittany Lions’ loss to Northwestern, with Drew Allar suffering a season-ending ankle injury and James Franklin being fired in the midst of his 12th season.

We could all sit and think about what could’ve been in 2025 alone, but there were a lot of moments over the 12 years that Franklin was in charge that, if reversed, could’ve had lasting impacts on the entire program. It’s not all bad, and we’re very grateful that some of these happened, but there was a distinct possibility that all of these moments could’ve been reversed and changed Penn State football forever.

First, a pair of honorable mentions:

HM No. 1: Pittsburgh, 2016

Of all the moments on this list, it might be the least remembered. In September 2016, Penn State was rallying back from a three-touchdown deficit against its in-state rival, Pittsburgh, to pull within three points in the final minutes. With 2:15 to go on 4th-and-16, Trace McSorley hit DeAndre Thompkins for 34 yards to get Penn State into Joey Julius’ field goal range, but just two plays later, the first-year starter took an ill-advised shot at the end zone and threw a game-losing interception.

This game didn’t have a huge impact at the time… but it turns out that this loss probably kept the Nittany Lions out of the 2016 College Football Playoff, as the committee excluded the eventual Big Ten champions from the four-team field due to their 2-2 start that included a blowout loss at Michigan.

HM No. 2: 2025 Orange Bowl

This one has a big argument to be higher, but there’s less of a concrete scenario to change. Does Franklin have a longer leash if Penn State were coming off a national championship berth? Do they even have this all-in push with everyone returning if they won this game? There are some big questions here.

No. 10: Journey Brown and Micah Parsons play in 2020

These two had completely different situations, so it’s hard to group them together. Parsons took advantage of an NCAA rule that allowed players to opt out of the 2020 season to prepare for the NFL, but Brown had to medically retire due to a heart condition. Still, many will forever wonder what would’ve happened if the team hadn’t lost their best offensive and defensive players before the season after an 11-2 year in 2019.

The Michael Penix Jr. two-point conversion might be a big moment, but it being ruled short (as he should’ve) doesn’t change the team being very shorthanded entering an abnormal season.

No. 9: Drew Allar flips to Ohio State (2021)

Penn State was one of the first major schools to believe in the tall quarterback from Medina, Ohio, offering him back when he was just a three-star recruit. Allar committed to Penn State in March 2021 and soared in his senior year to become one of the best recruits in the nation.

Ohio State was mostly focused on five-star recruit Quinn Ewers at the time, but when he reclassified to join the Buckeyes’ class of 2021, Ohio State shifted its eyes to Allar in an attempt to keep him in-state, offering him in September of his senior year. Allar decided to stay with the Nittany Lions, rewarding their faith in him before he became a top recruit.

While Allar’s career at Penn State will end with unfulfilled promise, he did lead the program to its first College Football Playoff appearance and will go down as one of the best-performing quarterbacks in program history. What do things look like if he’s in Columbus and Beau Pribula gets the reins in 2023 after Sean Clifford departs?

No. 8: Sean Clifford never gets hurt (2021)

Penn State was No. 4 in the nation entering a massive October battle with No. 3 Iowa at Kinnick Stadium. While many forecasted a defensive battle, especially with the non-conference offensive struggles of the Nittany Lions, Clifford had powered Penn State to a 17-3 lead in the second quarter despite throwing a pair of interceptions.

The second Jordan Stout made the field goal to make it a 14-point game, though, everything changed. Clifford departed with a rib injury after taking a shot on third down and didn’t return. Redshirt freshman backup Ta’Quan Roberson entered with very limited career snaps, and with the Iowa offense rallying, the Hawkeye faithful smelled blood in the water.

Roberson never had a chance. Eight false starts and a putrid 7-for-21 for 34 yards and two interceptions were enough for Iowa to rally back and win 23-20. Clifford wouldn’t miss another game until an illness held him out against Rutgers in November, but the damage was done. He was hampered for several weeks after. Penn State collapsed from a 5-0 start to a 7-6 finish, including a brutal loss to Illinois in nine overtimes.

No. 7: NCAA doesn’t reduce sanctions (2015)

A big part of how Penn State was able to start turning things around in 2016 was being able to function like a football program again. From 2012-14, the NCAA imposed crippling sanctions on the university for the Jerry Sandusky scandal after considering giving the program the death penalty.

During the Bill O’Brien years, Penn State had its scholarships slashed, roster size limited, and was banned from bowl games for four years. Two years after the scandal, however, the NCAA eased restrictions and allowed Penn State to participate in a bowl game in 2014, increased the amount of scholarships from 65 to 75, and increased recruiting classes from 15 to 20, with full sanctions being removed a year early.

These changes allowed Franklin to have a smoother transition, and likely partially led to the program’s transformative 2014 recruiting class that helped spur a turnaround.

No. 6: No rain delay at Spartan Stadium (2017)

It’s probably not the rain delay’s fault, but don’t tell that to the generational trauma.

Many fans would argue that the 2017 team was the best of the Franklin era, and while this isn’t the most historically significant game from that season, it’s still a crucial one. With a 14-7 lead over Michigan State in the second quarter, the skies opened up over Spartan Stadium, and the game was delayed for over three hours.

When the game finally resumed? No. 24 Michigan State pulled out an upset victory on a walk-off field goal, killing the Nittany Lions’ playoff hopes with their second loss. With an 11-1 record and a one-point loss against Ohio State, they probably get in. Instead, the first of two devastating upset losses to Sparty derailed a season.

No. 5: Justin Fields stays committed (2017)

Justin Fields was one of the greatest quarterbacks in recent college football history, leading Ohio State to a 20-2 record over two seasons with 63 touchdowns to just nine interceptions before being a first-round pick by the Chicago Bears in 2021.

But did you know that he was once a Penn State commit? Fields, a Georgia native, committed to Franklin and the Nittany Lions on December 1, 2016. In the coming weeks, a full-court press by several SEC powers, including his hometown Georgia Bulldogs, looked to keep him from Happy Valley.

Ultimately, Fields decommitted on June 6, 2017, and would commit to Georgia four months later. After his freshman year, he’d transfer to Ohio State and the rest was history. With all due respect to McSorley and Clifford, a quarterback like Fields could’ve elevated the Nittany Lions into championship contention, unlike any other in history.

No. 4: Saquon Barkley stays committed to Rutgers (2015)

Some forget that the star running back who has become a Penn State icon was nearly wearing scarlet in Piscataway, New Jersey.

Barkley was, at one point, committed to Rutgers in September 2013. It wasn’t long until Penn State had swooped in with an offer, and Barkley visited the iconic 2013 White Out against Michigan, which he has stated to his day had a massive impact on him, eventually flipping to Penn State in February 2014.

Does Rutgers become the new Big Ten power that Penn State became in 2016 with Barkley? Does Barkley’s talent even shine through there? What happens to Penn State without him? Good thing we never had to find out.

No. 3: Penn State holds on in the Shoe (2017)

The game that stunted the momentum of the 2016 surge was indisputably the 2017 instant classic rematch against the Buckeyes in Columbus. Penn State led from the jump on a Barkley kick return touchdown and led 35-20 in the fourth quarter.

Penn State had 1st-and-goal from the 7-yard line soon after with a 35-27 lead and under seven minutes to go, but the Ohio State defense held them to a field goal. After another touchdown, Penn State went three-and-out, and J.T. Barrett was surgical in propelling Ohio State to a 39-38 lead.

On their final 10 offensive plays, the Nittany Lions had -8 yards. The defense allowed over 500 yards. While the season would only go up in smoke after the Michigan State loss, it’s completely fair to say that closing off this win would’ve completely disrupted the Big Ten’s order. Two consecutive victories over the pre-eminent power could’ve changed recruiting in the region for a long time.

No. 2: Marcus Allen never blocks that field goal (2016)

I don’t need to set the scene. Just watch the video again for the 1,000th time like we all have:

Penn State was building something, and a win or loss in this game was not going to fully decide irrelevance or national prominence, but let’s be real. This was the defining game of the Franklin era. Without this game, Penn State’s 2016 season might be another 7-5 or 8-4 campaign. Despite all the talent, they needed a big game breakthrough to gain national prominence, and we might not hold the names of Barkley, McSorley, Allen, Mike Gesicki, Grant Haley, etc. in such high regard if a win and a moment like this is never achieved.

How far does the Franklin era even go without this game?

No. 1: Dante Moore is stopped on fourth down in overtime (2025)

Penn State led 24-17 in overtime and had Oregon in a fourth-down situation. While it was a very achievable 4th-and-1 situation, crazier things have happened than a defense that had played brilliant ‘bend but don’t break’ ball all day stopping the Heisman contender short and sending Beaver Stadium into a frenzy.

Instead, Moore converted, and the Ducks scored a touchdown shortly after. Oregon scored immediately in double overtime, and Allar threw an interception to end the game in heartbreaking fashion. This brutal end to the White Out, unknown to everyone, was the beginning of the end. Penn State would lose back-to-back games as 20+ point favorites, Allar would get hurt, and Franklin would be fired.

If Moore was stuffed at the line of scrimmage, Penn State is likely still undefeated and in a premium position to fulfill its preseason destiny. Instead, a nightmare scenario that was unfathomable to everyone has played out, with the program suddenly undergoing massive change.