Penn State men’s hockey is coming off a disappointing sweep at the hands of No. 2 Michigan State in the most highly anticipated series of the season that included a memorable game at Beaver Stadium on Saturday.

The loss dropped the Nittany Lions to No. 6 in the latest USCHO poll, but did not harm them in regard to the NPI, the way the NCAA decides seeding for the NCAA Tournament.

As of Monday, the team remains entrenched in the No. 4 slot on the estimated NPI (the NCAA doesn’t have public rankings, but several sites plug in the known formulas and are pretty accurate), which would grant them a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament in late March.

Of course, there’s a lot of season left to go and some big games on the horizon. With the men’s hockey team currently in a bye week before a titanic clash at Yost Ice Arena against No. 1 Michigan, let’s look around and see how they size up with just over a month to go in the regular season.

How Safely Is Penn State In The Field?

As previously stated, the Nittany Lions are very safely in the field, currently holding a No. 1 seed. It would take a collapse of epic proportions to drop them onto the bubble, or even out of the field altogether. According to PlayoffStatus.com, they have a 98% chance of making their second consecutive appearance in the tournament for the first time in program history.

There are eight regular-season games remaining on the schedule and a minimum of nine total games before Selection Sunday. After two road games against the consensus No. 1 team in the nation, the Nittany Lions will face the bottom two teams in the Big Ten, hosting Ohio State at Pegula Ice Arena before traveling to South Bend, Indiana, to meet Notre Dame. Taking care of business there will cement their high seeding.

The way the NPI works means that the Nittany Lions will not be punished too hard if they come up empty in Ann Arbor, similar to how they held serve after managing just one point this past weekend. Losing to the teams you should beat, however, will hurt them. They finish the regular season with a Thursday-Friday series against a Wisconsin team that is in the type of freefall that Penn State needs to avoid.

What Seed Will Penn State Be?

Based on the way they’re playing, a No. 1 or No. 2 seed will be in their future, which will give them a slightly easier opponent and a path to the Regional Final. In last year’s run to the Frozen Four, Penn State was a No. 4 seed and drew top-seeded Maine, but had the advantage of essential home-field advantage in Allentown.

Because of how the NPI is used, there’s not much flexibility. If Penn State finishes, say, No. 6 in the NPI, they’ll be a No. 2 seed. This isn’t March Madness, where the predictive tools like NET and KenPom are only part of the equation.

What Does The Rest Of The Field Look Like?

Michigan and Michigan State are locks, as are the top dogs of the NCHC in North Dakota and the reigning national champions, Western Michigan.

Each conference gets an automatic bid, which goes to the winner of the conference tournament. For the Big Ten and NCHC, it will likely be one of the teams currently in the field. The same can likely be said for the ECAC, which currently has three in the field (Cornell, Dartmouth, Quinnipiac). But what about the other three?

• Hockey East: It’s been a down year for the once-dominant conference in college hockey, but Providence has begun to separate itself. Boston College and UConn are around the cut line, and several teams remain threats despite having little to no chance of an at-large bid, such as Maine, Boston University, and Northeastern.
• CCHA: Similar to Hockey East, there are a number of teams around the cut line that could get them two bids into the tournament, but there also exists a reality where a spoiler kicks the top-seeded team out. St. Thomas is in the field as of today with Augustana, Minnesota State, and Michigan Tech in the mix and not totally out of the at-large picture.
• AHA: The Atlantic Hockey Association is the black sheep of the conferences and the only one with no chance of two bids. Bentley is currently in the pole position, but they have 10 teams between them and the field, according to NPI. Any of these teams could go on a Cinderella run and get the auto bid, including Air Force, RIT, and Sacred Heart.

As for the at-large bubble, Wisconsin is currently in trouble. Once the No. 2 team in the land, the Badgers have lost six straight and sit at No. 14 in the NPI, an uncomfortable position that Penn State sat in last year, at the whims of the conference tournaments. They have time to gain ground, but it’s bleak. The current bubble is as follows:

• Last Four In: Denver (NCHC), Boston College (Hockey East), Wisconsin (Big Ten), Augustana (CCHA)
• First Four Out: UConn (Hockey East), Minnesota State (CCHA), Harvard (ECAC), UMass (Hockey East)

What Could A Bracket Look Like?

If the season ended today, these are the seeds:

No. 1: Michigan*, Michigan State, North Dakota*, Penn State

No. 2: Western Michigan, Cornell*, Providence*, Minnesota-Duluth

No. 3: Quinnipiac, Dartmouth, Denver, Boston College

No. 4: St. Thomas*, Wisconsin, Augustana, Bentley*

Teams with asterisks are the auto-bids.

The “host” rule is still in effect, meaning that any team designated as a host that makes the tournament will be automatically placed in that regional. This applies only to Denver, which will be in the Loveland Regional in Colorado, no matter what.

Aside from that, this is the main place where the committee that picks the bracket can finagle things. They can move teams around to maximize attendance, prevent conference matchups, and do what they believe is necessary to create the best bracket possible while coloring in the lines.

North Dakota makes sense to stay close to home and be the top dogs at the Sioux Falls Regional. After that, it’s pick your poison with the other three No. 1 seeds. Penn State would probably want to head to Albany or Worcester, but could be saddled with heading to Loveland due to their current seeding.

As for preventing conference matchups, it’s pretty easy to avoid putting the Big Ten in the same regional since three of the four teams are on the same seed line. The issues arise elsewhere.

Here’s a mockup bracket:

Worcester Regional:
(1) Michigan State vs. (4) Augustana
(2) Western Michigan vs. (3) Dartmouth

Albany Regional:
(1) Michigan vs. (4) Bentley
(2) Minnesota-Duluth vs. (3) Quinnipiac

Sioux Falls Regional:
(1) North Dakota vs. (4) Wisconsin
(2) Cornell vs. (3) Boston College

Loveland Regional:
(1) Penn State vs. (4) St. Thomas
(2) Providence vs. (3) Denver

This would not be desirable for Penn State, not only because it is the farthest regional from campus, but also because they’d be in an unenviable situation of potentially facing an essential road game in the Regional Final.

What Are Other People Saying?

Where is Penn State’s standing in the other big bracket projections?

College Puck NXT: They have Penn State as a No. 1 seed, but in the Worcester Regional. Western Michigan, Boston College, and St. Thomas make up the rest of the regional.

College Puck NXT Bracketology Update

Key Notes
Seedings & Order based on CURRENT NPI
The Bean Pot semis begin tonight! Last call for BU/Northeastern winner?!
Wisconsin has been on a free fall losing six straight.
Bubble cutoff is based on current NCAA Tourney… pic.twitter.com/3BlKd47GvT

— College Puck NXT (@CollegePuckNXT) February 2, 2026

Black Shoe Diaries: Published before Penn State was swept over the weekend, this bracket has Penn State in the Loveland regional as a top seed, meaning they’d run into a hosting Denver squad. Western Michigan and Dartmouth make up the other two spots.

USCHO: Published last Wednesday, the USCHO projection has an identical bracket to Black Shoe Diaries, sending Penn State to the Loveland Regional.