by Anthony Colucci and Andy Mollenauer

Penn State held onto its No. 12 standing in the latest College Football Playoff ranking and enters championship weekend with its bowl destination still up in the air.

Although 12 teams obviously make New Year’s Six bowls, the Nittany Lions aren’t necessarily guaranteed a spot in one of them. They’ll be keeping an eye on the Big Ten and Big 12 Championship games this weekend and hoping for a favorable draw from the selection committee.

Five top-12 teams have missed out on the New Year’s Six bowls in the four-year history of the College Football Playoff. Here’s a look at those teams, what kept them out of the New Year’s Six, and how Penn State looks in comparison.

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Kansas State (2014)

Ranking: No. 11
Record: 9-3
Bowl: Alamo Bowl
Annual revenue: $86.1 million

UNC (2015)

Ranking: No. 10
Record: 11-2
Bowl: Russell Athletic Bowl
Annual revenue: $96.6 million

TCU (2015)

Ranking: No. 11
Record: 10-2
Bowl: Alamo Bowl
Annual revenue: $93.3 million 

Colorado (2016) 

Ranking: No. 10
Record: 10-3
Bowl: Alamo Bowl
Annual revenue: $94.2 million

Oklahoma State (2016)

Ranking: No. 12
Record: 10-3
Bowl: Alamo Bowl
Annual revenue: $91.6 million

Penn State (2018)

Ranking: No. 12 
Record: 9-3
Bowl: ?
Revenue: $144 million

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Penn State Athletics generates much more revenue than the athletic departments with teams that have already missed the New Year’s Six.

The Nittany Lions made $144,017,055 during the 2016-17 season, according to a report by USA Today. In comparison, all five of the other programs made less than $100 million the same year. As important as a team’s resume is, money talks during bowl season.

Teams like Penn State bring in more money, are more popular, and draw higher ratings and attendances than smaller-scale Power Five teams like TCU or Colorado. Although UNC is also a big name athletic department, it’s better known for basketball, a likely factor that contributed to the tenth-ranked Tar Heels missing out on a New Year’s Six Bowl.

It’s hard to imagine the committee putting in Washington State, which brought in $64 million in revenue in 2017, over a financial juggernaut like Penn State. However, following this line of logic, be wary of No. 14 Texas, which plays Oklahoma on Saturday for the Big 12 crown. The Longhorns led the nation in revenue in 2017 with more than $214 million.

All top-12 teams have made the New Year’s Six only once.

Last year, UCF represented the Group of 5 but did so as the No. 12 team in the country. No top-12 team was left out to make room for a lower-ranked Group of 5 team. Lucky for Penn State, it’ll likely be the same case this year, provided No. 8 UCF wins its conference championship this week. However…

Notre Dame complicates things a bit this year and somewhat cancels out UCF.

The Fighting Irish don’t belong to a conference for football and are a near lock for the playoff, keeping at least one more Power Five conference champion out of the top four and taking a spot away from a bubble team like Penn State. In 2015, Notre Dame played in the Fiesta Bowl.

There are limited bowl destinations for the Nittany Lions.

The Peach and Fiesta Bowls are the only New Year’s Six games Penn State can play in. There’s no route to the Rose, Sugar, Cotton, or Orange Bowls. If Ohio State wins the Big Ten but misses the Playoff, the Buckeyes would play in the Rose Bowl and Michigan would play in either the Peach or Fiesta Bowl.

Penn State could in theory get the other game, but the committee giving the Big Ten three New Year’s Six games in a year where it didn’t send a team to the Playoff is unlikely. This isn’t 2016 when the conference had four top-eight teams and all played in the New Year’s Six.

If Northwestern wins the Big Ten this weekend, though, the Wildcats would make the Rose Bowl, and Ohio State and Michigan would likely round out the Peach and Fiesta Bowls, so Penn State fans might need to bite the bullet and trade in their blue and white for some scarlet…just for a few hours, that is.