ESPN has an optimistic outlook on Penn State football heading into the 2022 season.

On Thursday, the Nittany Lions came in at No. 12 on ESPN’s preseason college football Football Power Index (FPI) rankings behind notable rivals such as Pitt, Michigan, and Ohio State.

The FPI rankings aim to measure team strength and are meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance. ESPN’s index uses 20,000 simulations of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule to find the team’s true strength.

Despite losing stars on both sides of the ball like Jahan Dotson and Jaquan Brisker, James Franklin’s squad moves up five spots from the end of the 2021 season. The Nittany Lions wrapped things up with a disappointing 7-6 record and a frustrating Outback Bowl loss to Arkansas.

The FPI rankings project Penn State will finish with an estimated record of 8.3-3.8, along with a 4.3% chance to win the conference, 3.8% chance to make the playoffs, and only a 0.2% chance to win the national championship. Additionally, with trips to Auburn and Michigan, the index ranks Penn State’s strength of schedule 23rd-hardest in the nation.

The Big Ten has the second-most teams in the FPI rankings’ top 25 with five teams: Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. The SEC leads with nine programs in the rankings.