After Penn State football’s 38-10 win over SMU in the first round of the College Football Playoff, the Nittany Lions head to Glendale, Arizona, to face Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl. It’s Penn State’s first time in the bowl game since defeating No. 11 Washington 35-28 in 2017.

Penn State and Boise State are a combined 10-0 in Fiesta Bowl history, but one team will suffer its first loss on New Year’s Eve. Our staffers are confident that the Nittany Lions will come out on top and advance to the Orange Bowl.

Fernando Martinez Ruiz De Esparza (14-0): Penn State 34, Boise State 27

Folks, let’s hope we get a good ending to 2024.

The Nittany Lions proved to the entire nation that they have the potential to win it all after they dismantled SMU on December 20. Penn State took advantage of its home-field advantage and dominated a good SMU team in all aspects of the game. Despite another slow start by the offense, the defense responded big time after being dominated by Oregon in the Big Ten championship game. The Nittany Lions will be coming into the Fiesta Bowl with a lot of momentum.

As for Boise State, this team is good despite playing in a weak conference. It has an NFL first-round caliber running back in Ashton Jeanty and almost beat Oregon earlier this season. If Penn State’s defense struggles to stop Jeanty, the Broncos have a huge opportunity to pull off the upset. The key to Penn State winning this game not only involves shutting down Jeanty but dominating Boise State’s passing defense. Boise State’s pass defense is ranked 109th in the nation, so expect Drew Allar and Tyler Warren to have big games.

In the end, I think Penn State will do enough to stop Jeanty and force Boise State’s passing game to win this game. I don’t think that will be enough for the Broncos, and the Nittany Lions will win this game to head to Miami for the CFP semifinals.

Michael Siroty (12-0): Penn State 35, Boise State 17

Take a look at every positional matchup between these two teams. Obviously, Boise State has the better running back in the generational Ashton Jeanty. However, Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen are still a great tandem. Penn State has the upper hand at every other position. 

To put it simply, the Nittany Lions are the better team. I expect Jeanty to put on a show per usual, but Penn State will take this one by two or three scores and advance to the semifinals. See you in Florida.

Cooper Cazares (13-0): Penn State 28, Boise State 20

Penn State played one of its best games of the season in the first game of the playoffs against SMU. The Nittany Lions had multiple defensive touchdowns that fueled its dominant win. The defense must step up again as it faces Ashton Jeanty in a run-heavy scheme.

Can Penn State limit the Broncos’ top playmaker? If they can zero in on the run game and force Boise State to throw, it will get ugly for the Broncos. Ashton Jeanty will have a few breakout plays and a pair of touchdowns but overall, this Penn State team has great momentum and will roll into the semifinals. Boise State covers, but Penn State moves on.

Charlie Pegler (2-1): Penn State 27, Boise State 6

Drew Allar.

Jamie Lynch (12-2): Penn State 38, Boise State 31

The matchup we have been waiting for is about to commence. Ashton Jeanty versus Tom Allen’s defense for a spot in the national semifinal. But on Tuesday, I think it will be Penn State’s offensive performance that will prove to be the difference-maker.

Jeanty has been off the charts. He hasn’t rushed for under 120 yards in a game this season and nearly eclipsed the 200 mark against the now-top-ranked Oregon Ducks. Needless to say, it’s going to be very difficult to stop him. However, I still believe Penn State has a path to win the game, even if the star running back continues this trend.

Boise State hasn’t had too much success with the passing game this year, and their passing defense has been questionable as well. While they are second in the nation in sacks, if Penn State’s offensive line can give Drew Allar enough time, the sky’s the limit. I expect explosive plays to dominate this game for the Nittany Lions.

This team is supposedly peaking at the right time. If Penn State plays like it did in the second half of the Big Ten Championship, I’m excited to see what it can produce against the Broncos.

We are one win away from the final four, folks. Lock the f*** in.

Cadyn Gill (0-0): Penn State 30, Boise State 21

My prediction for the Fiesta Bowl is a no-brainer. The Penn State Nittany Lions will win this football game. While a lot of the country is putting their support behind Ashton Jeanty and Boise State because they view him as this generational, never-seen-before talent, the reality is that we have seen running backs just like him before. There are running backs that put up better numbers in fewer games against better competition. Jeanty is a superb player who breaks tackles like it’s nothing, but the Penn State defense isn’t a Group of Five defense.

Tom Allen’s defense has no shortage of sound tacklers that rally to the football to take down ball carriers. Because of this, I do not believe Jeanty will run wild on the Penn State defense, leaving Boise State’s offense one-dimensional. Once Penn State stops the run on early downs, it will earn the right to pin its ears back and rush the passer. Abdul Carter and company will wreak havoc on a Boise State offense line unit that cannot effectively pass block.

The formula for success is crystal clear for Penn State. Earn the right to rush the passer by stopping the run on early downs and keeping Boise State behind the chains. Sound tackling on defense and protecting the football on offense will win this game for Penn State 30-21.

Nolan Wick (13-1): Penn State 31, Boise State 28

I think Boise State is getting disrespected by the oddsmakers, and the Broncos will make this a game. However, Penn State has more ways to win. I don’t have a prediction for how precisely it’ll unfold, but the Nittany Lions will continue avoiding chaos and figure out a way to get it done. 

CJ Doebler (13-1): Penn State 35, Boise State 20

I’m following the advice on Boise State’s shirts and counting them out.

Please count us out. #BleedBlue | #BuiltDifferent pic.twitter.com/SosBIC2LsW

— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) December 29, 2024

Mitch Corcoran (13-1): Penn State 42, Boise State 21

I don’t think this game will be as close as some others think it will be. Ashton Jeanty will have his with 150+ yards and multiple touchdowns, but I think that’s all Boise State will do offensively. Sure, Penn State has the No. 7 run defense in the country — the toughest front the Broncos will have faced to date — but I still don’t think it’s enough to hold Jeanty.

Nothing about Boise State’s defense jumps off the page besides its ability to sack the quarterback. The Broncos have the second most sacks in the country with 51, but Drew Allar has been one of the least sacked quarterbacks this season, and I don’t think that changes much. I think we will see a similar offensive performance in a dome stadium like in the Big Ten Championship and I think the Nittany Lions score a lot of points because of that.

I don’t care that Boise State played Oregon close at the beginning of September. Do you know who also played Oregon close at the beginning of the season? Idaho.

Joe Lister (12-2): Penn State 39, Boise State 22

I’m just hoping for a scorgami.

Ashton Jeanty will have his day, but I’m picking Penn State to be slightly better than Vegas thinks. It’ll sting watching my king and rightful Heisman Trophy winner Ashton Jeanty gash Penn State’s defense for big gains, but I don’t think I’ll be as hurt as Jeanty when he watches Ethan Grunkemeyer get in the game for the final drive.

Screw the hippo.