After No. 3 Penn State lost to No. 6 Oregon on September 27, the Nittany Lions saw their playoffs hope plummet to 22%, per ESPN’s Playoff Predictor. This number dropped even further, below 14%, after losing to 0-4 UCLA the following week.

Now, Penn State isn’t even in the top 24 best odds to make the College Football Playoffs, behind teams such as North Texas, Virginia, and Old Dominion.

Rightfully so, Penn State fans are pissed. 2025 was supposed to be the last dance season for the 2022 recruiting class. This was supposed to be the year James Franklin and Penn State took that next step and won a national championship.

On all social media platforms, people are claiming the season is over for Penn State. Some are even calling for a boycott of the Northwestern game taking place in Beaver Stadium on Saturday.

No, the season did not end in Pasadena, California. Penn State will play the remainder of the season regardless of whether that means seven more losses or not. But are the playoff dreams gone? Most likely, but no.

The simple answer is Penn State still has a path to the final 12 at the end of the season. If the Nittany Lions win out, they will be 10-2 with two wins against top-10 opponents and a close loss in double overtime to another.

This resume would often be similar to 2024 Ohio State, which hosted a playoff game in round one after losing to Oregon by one score early in the season and an unranked Michigan team in the last game of the year. The Buckeyes did not make the Big Ten Championship either.

In fact, seven of the 12 teams in 2024 that made the playoffs had two losses. This included No. 3 Georgia, No. 4 Arizona State, No. 5 Texas, and No. 8 Ohio State. Arizona State had two unranked conference losses that year.

However unlikely it is, here is what Penn State’s path to a 10-2 season looks like.

The Path

The first step is for the leaders to step up. Last season, Ohio State lost to unranked Michigan in the final game of the regular season. It was well-documented that the players got together and discussed the issues.

Guys like Will Howard and Jack Sawyer took the lead and raised the Buckeyes’ confidence enough to roll through the playoffs and win a National Championship.

Penn State has experienced guys like this in Drew Allar and Dani Dennis-Sutton. It’s time for them to step up and bring the team back to where they should be mentally.

The next step is the game. Penn State will begin its attempt to return to the AP poll with Northwestern on Saturday. Similar to UCLA, the Wildcats have struggled this season and are considered one of the worst Power Four teams in the country.

With losses to Tulane and Oregon, Penn State will need to be aggressive and impressively win the game if it wants the fans’ support moving forward. While the Wildcats kept it close with Oregon, in Beaver Stadium, the Nittany Lions should be able to get it done.

Then comes the familiar test, Kinnick Stadium at night. Penn State is set to play Iowa at 7 p.m. on Saturday, October 18.

Iowa has struggled offensively this season, but like the teams of the past, it has a very strong defensive presence. Essentially, this is a classic Penn State-Iowa matchup. The issue for the Nittany Lions is that they will not have a road win heading into one of the hardest places to play in the Big Ten, at night.

This will likely be a dog fight, but if Penn State comes out on top, this has one of those season-changing feels to it, whether that is a good or bad thing. A win against the Hawkeyes means a swing of momentum heading into the bye week; a loss most likely sees the team crumble and potentially give up on the season.

Penn State then gets a bye week to prepare for Ohio State in Columbus. During the last bye week, Franklin was given some flak for going on multiple recruiting trips instead of preparing to beat Oregon. While he defended his decisions then, it’s likely he feels more pressure to win than he ever has and could focus more on the opponent.

While this seems a virtually impossible feat right now, beating the No. 1 team in their house will likely boost Penn State back into the playoff discussion.

If, hard if, Penn State leaves Columbus with a victory, it will welcome No. 7 Indiana to Beaver Stadium the week after, in likely another ranked matchup at home.

Franklin’s biggest pull has been that he might not be able to win the big game, but he won’t lose to teams that he isn’t supposed to. How ironic would it be if, after losing a game he is not supposed to, he completely flips the script and beats No. 1 Ohio State and No. 7 Indiana in back-to-back weeks?

There are some people who think Penn State can split these games and still make the playoffs. The issue with that thought process is that you are relying on other teams losing rather than just yourself. Also, if you lose to Ohio State but beat Indiana, it likely drops the Hoosiers more than it boosts Penn State.

If Penn State is still undefeated after November 8, though, the road to 10-2 is relatively simple. Beat Michigan State, beat Nebraska at home, and then beat Rutgers.

Michigan State is an interesting team, but it has struggled in Big Ten play. A large part of this is a defense that has allowed at least 24 points in the last four games, including 45 to USC and 38 to Nebraska.

Nebraska has a glaring issue with its defensive line, as despite a good game against Michigan, the Wolverines were able to run whenever they wanted. Penn State’s offensive line has struggled this year, but it would most likely still be able to take advantage of this weakness at home.

Similarly, Rutgers’ weakness is its defense, which might not be able to stop a Little League team. The Scarlett Knights have let up at least 30 points in all three games they faced real opponents.

So… long story short, Penn State needs a miracle to make the college football playoffs. The Nittany Lions most likely need to win out and beat teams such as No. 7 Indiana and No. 1 Ohio State to regain the confidence of the country and the committee.