Penn State men’s hockey is coming off its most grueling stretch of the season, facing the two best teams in the country with a bye in between. It ultimately failed to come out with a win, going 0-3-1, with an overtime loss at Beaver Stadium to then-No. 2 Michigan State on January 31 and a shootout loss (counted as a tie) to No. 2 Michigan two weeks later.

Despite the recent losses, the Nittany Lions haven’t suffered at all in terms of the NPI, which the NCAA uses to determine seeding for the NCAA Tournament.

As of Thursday night, the team currently sits at No. 5, nestled between Western Michigan and Providence in the estimated NPI rankings (the NCAA doesn’t have public rankings, but several sites plug in the known formulas and are pretty accurate), which would place comfortably in the NCAA Tournament field as the top No. 2 seed.

There are still three weeks and six regular-season games left to play, as well as a Big Ten Tournament that could go a long way toward seeding, so nothing is set in stone for Penn State as we head to the end of February. Where do things stand in that regard?

How Safely Is Penn State In The Field?

As previously stated, the Nittany Lions are safely in the field, currently holding the top No. 2 seed with upward mobility to earn a No. 1 seed. While they aren’t absolutely safe (especially amid their injury bug), they need to take care of business reasonably in the coming weeks to lock up a spot. According to PlayoffStatus.com, they have a 99% chance of making their second consecutive appearance in the tournament for the second time in program history.

There are six regular-season games remaining on the schedule and a minimum of seven total games before Selection Sunday. The good news for Penn State? Its next two series are against the two teams in the Big Ten’s basement, starting with Ohio State at home on Friday before traveling to South Bend to face Notre Dame the following weekend. Even the regular-season finale is against Wisconsin at home, a team they previously swept and now in a brutal second-half slump.

Going 0-3-1 against the two top teams in the nation did not affect the team’s NPI, as the formula is generally lenient toward losses against higher-ranked teams, especially on the road and in overtime/shootouts. What heavily damages your NPI is losing to significantly worse teams, especially at home. A few wins will lock up a spot, but they need to dominate the final three weeks to get an optimal seed.

What Seed Will Penn State Be?

Based on how they’re playing, a No. 1 or No. 2 seed is in their future, which will give them a slightly easier opponent and a path to the Regional Final. In last year’s run to the Frozen Four, Penn State was a No. 4 seed and drew top-seeded Maine, but had an essential home-field advantage in Allentown.

While you may think the difference between being No. 5 and No. 7 in the NPI is negligible, in a smaller tournament like hockey, it’s big. Michigan and Michigan State have separated themselves as the nation’s two best teams, and if Penn State stays in the top six in the NPI, they will likely avoid both in the regionals.

Because of how the NPI is used, there’s not much flexibility. If Penn State finishes, say, No. 6 in the NPI, they’ll be a No. 2 seed. This isn’t March Madness, where the predictive tools like NET and KenPom are only part of the equation.

What Does The Rest Of The Field Look Like?

Michigan and Michigan State are absolute locks, while the likes of Western Michigan and North Dakota (both from the NCHC), Penn State, Quinnipiac, and Providence are as good as in.

Each conference receives an automatic bid, awarded to the winner of its conference tournament. Four conferences currently feel good about getting two bids, but there’s chaos across the country that is possible.

• Big Ten: Barring absolute disaster, the Big Ten will easily get three teams in. Wisconsin is the only one that has a chance at an at-large bid aside from the top 3, but has faded big time in the second half. They are right on the bubble.
• NCHC: After Western Michigan and North Dakota, the NCHC has two other teams in great position to make it (Denver, Minnesota-Duluth). Miami (OH) and St. Cloud State are the best candidates to steal a bid, both sitting outside the top 20 in the NPI.
• ECAC: Dartmouth has faded after its terrific start to the season, but both it and Cornell remain in a premium position to make the NCAA Tournament. There’s no other realistic hope for an at-large bid at this point, with Union and Harvard the best bid-stealing candidates.
• Hockey East: After a rough start to the season, one of the elite conferences in college hockey is finishing the season strong. Providence, UConn, and Boston College would all be in the field if the season ended today, but only the Friars are comfortably in. UMass is within shouting distance of the bubble, but will likely have to steal a bid in the conference tournament.
• CCHA: If St. Thomas wins the conference tournament, the CCHA will likely be a one-bid league. Or will it? The first four teams out of the current field are in the conference: Minnesota State, Augustana, Michigan Tech, and Bowling Green. Naturally, they’re likely to cannibalize each other down the stretch, but if one or two soar, they could challenge for two or three bids.
• AHA: The only conference where there’s no chance of a second bid, the AHA has no team in the top 25 of the NPI. Bentley (No. 26) is the current favorite to grab the autobid, but the randomness of a conference tournament means anyone can get it. RIT, Air Force, Holy Cross, and Sacred Heart are teams to watch.

The current bubble is as follows:

• Last Four In: Dartmouth (ECAC), UConn (Hockey East), Boston College (Hockey East), Wisconsin (Big Ten)
• First Four Out: Minnesota State (CCHA), Augustana (CCHA), Michigan Tech (CCHA), and Bowling Green (CCHA)

What Could A Bracket Look Like?

If the season ended today, these are the seeds:

No. 1: Michigan State*, Michigan, North Dakota*, Western Michigan

No. 2: Penn State, Quinnipiac*, Providence*, Denver

No. 3: Minnesota-Duluth, Cornell, Dartmouth, UConn

No. 4: St. Thomas*, Boston College, Wisconsin, Bentley*

Teams with asterisks are the auto-bids.

The “host” rule is still in effect, meaning that any team designated as a host that makes the tournament will be automatically placed in that regional. This applies only to Denver, which will be in the Loveland Regional in Colorado, no matter what. If Union (Albany), Omaha (Sioux Falls), or Holy Cross (Worcester) make it, they’ll be placed in their respective regionals.

Aside from that, this is the main place where the committee that picks the bracket can finagle things. They can move teams around to maximize attendance, prevent conference matchups, and do what they believe is necessary to create the best bracket possible while coloring in the lines.

North Dakota makes sense to stay close to home and be the top dogs at the Sioux Falls Regional. After that, it’s pick-your-poison among the other three No. 1 seeds. With all three being in Michigan, it’s anyone’s guess what happens.

For Penn State, it would prefer to be placed in Albany or Worcester to maximize the number of fans who could attend. As the top No. 2 seed if the season ended today, wherever the reigning champions are placed could be where Penn State goes.

As for preventing conference matchups, it’s easier to avoid putting the Big Ten in the same regional since two of the four teams are on the same seed line. The issues arise elsewhere.

Here’s a mockup bracket:

Worcester Regional:
(1) Western Michigan vs. (4) Boston College
(2) Penn State vs. (3) Cornell

Albany Regional:
(1) Michigan State* vs. (4) Bentley*
(2) Providence* vs. (3) Minnesota-Duluth

Sioux Falls Regional:
(1) North Dakota* vs. (4) Wisconsin
(2) Quinnipiac* vs. (3) UConn

Loveland Regional:
(1) Michigan vs. (4) St. Thomas*
(2) Denver vs. (3) Dartmouth

In trying to avoid conference matchups, more shuffling is needed here than usual. For Penn State, it’s not an ideal situation, even if it’s in the second-closest regional. The Nittany Lions would face Cornell, another team from the Northeast, in the first round. If they advanced to the Regional Final, they would either get the reigning national champions or the hometown team, Boston College. It’s not great.

What Are Other People Saying?

Where is Penn State’s standing in the other big bracket projections?

College Puck NXT: They have a very similar bracket, but they decided to maximize attendance by going with Dartmouth as the No. 3 seed in the Worcester Regional.

College Puck NXT Bracketology Update

Key Notes
Seedings & Order based on CURRENT NPI
Maintained bracket integrity while optimizing host site locations for best attendance outcomes.
0.929 NPI points is the difference between Wisconsin & Minnesota State for the final… pic.twitter.com/nlzQ8ubo5O

— College Puck NXT (@CollegePuckNXT) February 16, 2026

Black Shoe Diaries: Published on Thursday, this bracket has Penn State in the Albany Regional, once again alongside Western Michigan. The first-round matchup would be against UConn, while St. Thomas would be the four-seed.

USCHO: Published on Wednesday, the USCHO projection also has Penn State in the Worcester Regional, facing off against UConn in a 2025 Regional Final rematch in the first round. Western Michigan and Boston College would face off in the other matchup.

Boston College on SI: This bracket has an identical Worcester Regional to the USCHO. Several passionate fanbases combining there would make it a fun weekend.

Duluth News Tribune: Finally, something different. This bracket has Penn State heading to Sioux Falls, where top-seeded North Dakota will meet Boston College on the other side of the regional. Penn State would get Minnesota-Duluth in this scenario.