Analyzing Post-Oregon Reactions For Penn State Football
It’s College Football Playoff time, folks.
The Nittany Lions came up short on Saturday in the Big Ten Championship, falling to No. 1 Oregon 45-37. The loss didn’t exclude Penn State from the postseason, though, and the Nittany Lions are set to host SMU on Saturday, December 21.
After the loss on Saturday, however, there’s a lot to discuss before the Mustangs come to town in two weeks.
Tom Allen Is On The Hot Seat (Again)
CJ Doebler: During the two games when Penn State needed its defense the most, it couldn’t seem to stop much of anything. The Ducks teed off against the defensive line and the secondary as they amassed 183 yards on the ground and 283 yards through the air.
Once again, it was always going to be hard to match the statistics of last year’s defense. The first quarter of the Big Ten Championship, though, isn’t what the group is capable of. After the tough start, the squad made adjustments and put the Nittany Lions in a position to win the game, but it was far from a perfect outing.
Mitch Corcoran: I think it’s too early to say Tom Allen is on the hot seat. If he gets fired, I think it will happen at the end of next season if there’s a noticeable regression.
Yes, the defense looked awful in the Big Ten Championship, but it has played relatively well this year. The Nittany Lions rank eighth in points per game and sixth in yards per game. Although those numbers are worse than last season’s, the drop-off is small.
I say, let Allen get a full offseason in and reassess again next season.
Nolan Wick: Allen had his worst showing yet as Penn State’s defensive coordinator, which isn’t surprising considering it came against Oregon. However, that doesn’t make it acceptable. Allen has been a good hire for the Nittany Lions, but he needs to do a better job adjusting and preparing for other top teams.
The defense’s performance in the Big Ten Championship left plenty to be desired, and there are lessons worth taking from it with even bigger games coming up. Say what you want about SMU, but the Mustangs are a good team with the No. 20 total offense. If Penn State advances, Boise State’s No. 6 offense and Heisman candidate running back Ashton Jeanty will be an even bigger challenge.
Andy Kotelnicki Made The Right Decision
CJ: Andy Kotelnicki isn’t going to be in Happy Valley forever, folks.
Last week, it was reported that Andy Kotelnicki was interviewing for the West Virginia head coaching position, but he announced on Monday he would be staying on for at least another year.
Kotelnicki has absolutely transformed the Penn State offense this year, and James Franklin needs to do whatever he financially can to keep Kotelnicki in State College for the next few years. A head coaching job is inevitable for the coordinator, but I never thought he would head to Morgantown.
Mitch: Yes, 100%. Kotelnicki’s Power Four coaching experience only goes back to 2020. He hasn’t even been at Penn State for a full recruiting cycle. There was no way he was leaving.
West Virginia could have had him on the list of candidates, but I don’t think there was ever a real possibility of him taking the job. Penn State has so much to offer Kotelnicki, and the fans seem to like him, too. It’s hard to say the same about the head coach and defensive coordinator most of the time (see the section above).
Nolan: Andy Kotelnicki’s 2021 to 2023 stint at Kansas was his first job as an offensive coordinator at a Power Four school. The jump from Kansas to Penn State is significant, but he’s done wonders for the Nittany Lions. He’ll be a head coach one day if he wants, but it may take another season or two to make enough of a name for himself. The possibility of leaving Happy Valley after only one season seemed far-fetched.
Let’s not forget how much being a head coach has changed these days, though. NIL and its relation to the transfer portal have had a profound impact on the sport, and some veteran head coaches (see: Chip Kelly and Jeff Hafley) are opting for the NFL or coordinator jobs, perhaps because of this. It is unknown if this went into Kotelnicki’s thought process, but it’s worth noting.
The Referees Cost Penn State The Game
CJ: Penn State had a lot of unforced errors, but the referees didn’t help the Nittany Lions’ Big Ten Championship try. There seemed to be a few missed calls on Saturday night, but none looms larger than the Trey Wallace catch that was ruled an incompletion.
The Twitter warriors have their screenshots of the missed calls, and it’s really hard to argue with them. If the refs influence the game that much, though, it wasn’t yours to win in the first place.
Mitch: I’m not one to trash referees because they have a very tough job, but I noticed several missed calls from the press box through my binoculars. It’s hard to defend the officiating crew when that happens.
However, it’s still hard to blame an entire officiating crew for a loss when Penn State had two turnovers where one led to seven points for Oregon and the other ended the game.
Nolan: Penn State had 60 minutes of football to win the game, but it didn’t. That’s plenty of time to overcome bad calls, which there were a few. However, it typically goes both ways. The Nittany Lions lost to a better Oregon team, and it shouldn’t be blamed on the officiating.
Nick Singleton Proved He’s Back
CJ: I was skeptical that Singleton could return to the level he played at earlier in the season, but he’s been having a strong back half of the season. While Singleton posted 105 yards on the ground and 43 yards through the air, Kaytron Allen also had a good performance. Allen finished with 124 yards on the ground but was behind Singleton in passing yards with 15.
The running backs still have it, and it’s going to be extremely important down the stretch.
Mitch: This game was the exclamation point to Singleton’s comeback. He had a rough midseason stretch since being injured ahead of the UCLA game and now, he’s finally 100%. The stat line is impressive, he looked the fastest he has all season and has a break this week before the playoff game.
Singleton was encouraging, but Kaytron Allen was even more encouraging to me. He totaled 64 rush yards the three weeks before the conference championship. That’s a hair over 21 yards per game. Then all of a sudden, he exploded for 124 yards and averaged 8.9 yards per carry.
It’s hard to believe the team that had two backs combine for 229 rush yards didn’t win the game, but it’s still encouraging to see both play well when the most important part of the season is still ahead.
Nolan: It took a long time for Singleton to become fully healthy and be utilized properly, but better late than never. He’s been on a role recently, with more than 50 rushing yards apiece in his last three games. His 105-yard performance against the Ducks was his third-best of the season.
Kaytron Allen, meanwhile, had 124 rushing yards against Oregon despite a recent lack of production. If both running backs keep playing like this, Penn State will make noise in the playoffs.
Penn State Needs To Make The Semifinals
CJ: SMU and Boise State? Yes, Franklin needs to beat both of those teams. He may be safe regardless, but not making the semifinals with pundits across the country saying the Nittany Lions drew the easiest path will unleash the ire of the Penn State fanbase.
There’s mounting pressure for a run after the Big Ten Championship game, and a first- or even second-round exit will not make State College a pleasant place to be.
Mitch: If Penn State loses to either SMU or Boise State, some conversations need to be had. I get both teams are talented and have had great seasons, but in no world should Penn State lose to either opponent, especially after losing to No. 4 Ohio State and No. 1 Oregon by a combined 15 points.
Nolan: Absolutely. There’s no excuse to lose to SMU at Beaver Stadium, period. Even though Boise State is a dangerous team that almost beat Oregon, Penn State is better on paper. With all due respect to both teams, the Nittany Lions were gifted an early Christmas present. Penn State has the easiest path to a semifinal in the country, so taking advantage of it is a must.
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